The summer season unofficially comes to an end on Monday, with the Labor Day holiday signaling to Tri-State kids that it's time to trade the beach and boardwalk for the school bus. This year, the final weekend of summer also coincides with the start of meteorological fall, which is from September 1st to November 30th. For this final weekend down the shore, the weather forecast bears some similarity to the weather we had to kick off the season. Memorial Day weekend was mostly sunny and pleasantly warm, and we're expecting lots of sun and seasonal warmth this weekend, too (check out the forecast here).
The holiday weekend unfortunately includes another element from Memorial Day weekend as well- deadly rip currents. So far this year, the National Weather Service attributes 70 deaths to rip currents, four of which happened in New York and New Jersey. Sadly, many people underestimate the power of rip currents, or are unaware of the visual signs of a dangerous rip. My blog post previewing the MDW forecast discusses rip currents in detail, including the weather setup causing the risk, what to look for, and how to stay safe. This weekend's weather setup has a similar look to Memorial Day weekend's map:
Notice the area of high pressure to our north; that's what will bring us lots of sunshine. The airflow around the center of high pressure is clockwise, so our winds will be mostly from the north. That means lower humidity, since the northerly breeze pulls down drier continental air from Canada. On Memorial Day, a strong area of low pressure was stirring up the seas off the coast of North Carolina:
The current tropical outlook map is much busier, but the big similarity is the placement of Idalia's remnant low:
It's this feature that's primarily responsible for the rip current risk this weekend. Unlike high pressure, Idalia's circulation is counterclockwise, and it's pushing ocean water onto the Tri-State's Atlantic-facing beaches. So along with dangerous rip currents, minor coastal flooding is also likely with the next couple of high tide cycles.
This is the final weekend for lifeguards at most of our local beaches. With water temperatures in the 70s, the ocean will certainly look inviting this weekend, but even the strongest of swimmers will struggle with this surf. Instead, wade in until you're knee-deep into the water, and if you feel a strong undertow, walk parallel to the shoreline to find a calmer spot. And, as always, obey the lifeguards and pay attention to any signs of caution you may see at your favorite beach spot. You can learn more about beach weather and other summer weather phenomena from this post I wrote back in June.
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