MDW forecast calls for lots of sun... and rip currents

Memorial Day weekend marks the start of summer (unofficially speaking) across the country, and locals will undoubtedly pack our beaches and boardwalks for the holiday weekend, especially with such  favorable weather in the forecast. Right now, the ocean is still too chilly for most of us to venture in (the latest reading off the coast of Islip is 57°), but there's an even more serious threat to swimmers and surfers this weekend: rip currents. 

The map below from the local National Weather Service for Philadelphia shows a few tiny, bright blue areas highlighted along the coast of New Jersey and Delaware. Look to the right at the legend, and you'll see that these areas are under a Rip Current Statement. 

Map of weather alerts from the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, NJ on May 25th, 2023.

A "Rip Current Statement" may not sound serious, but paying attention to it could save your life. In 2021, more than 100 people died as a result of rip currents in the USA. More people died in rip currents than from tornadoes, other wind events, lightning, cold, and winter weather. The blue bars on the chart below show that 2021 was not an anomaly; over a 10-year average, rip currents were the third-biggest weather killer in the United States. 

Weather fatalities in 2021 by type of weather event.
Data and chart from the NCEI Storm Events Database

Rip currents generally don't form due to terrestrial weather. An offshore storm is usually the culprit, and that's the case today as well. The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on an area of low pressure off the coast of the Carolinas and Georgia. This area has a small chance of becoming a tropical storm, but it's still intense enough to produce gusty winds, high surf, and the subject of today's blog, rip currents. 

FROM THE NHC: A non-tropical low is expected to form along a front offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two... the system is likely to produce gusty winds and dangerous surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast late this week and into the weekend.

Rip currents are relatively small, fast-moving areas of water that move away from the shoreline out to sea. They're especially dangerous because they look like calm spots between waves, more inviting than ominous, and they're often fast enough to overpower even the strongest swimmers. 

Photo and caption of a rip current, courtesy of NOAA National Ocean Service

Rip currents are forecast to develop through this weekend due to that offshore low that the NHC is watching. Here's what the Weather Prediction Center thinks the big picture will be tomorrow: 

Forecast surface map for Friday, May 26th from NOAA's WPC

The counterclockwise winds around the low pressure center are capable of pushing ocean water onshore, even hundreds of miles away from the storm's center. The water piles up faster than it can move away. Instead of pushing further onto land, it forms a "rip" back out to sea.

Our coastline here in the Tri-State is especially prone to rip currents. The inward dip created by the coastlines of Long Island and New Jersey make it easier for ocean water to pile in subsequently release in the form of a rip. 

Map of Tri-State, courtesy of EPA.gov

And while NYC's beaches and pools are still in search of more lifeguards, it's especially important to stay vigilant to this common beach hazard. Here are some NOAA resources for identifying rip currents and what to do if you get caught in one.