Thanks for nothing, El Niño! Drought relief in the southern Plains not likely

NOAA issued its weekly drought report today, and the news continues to be bad for the southern Plains, especially west Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. On the map below, the areas shaded in deep red are suffering the worst drought conditions, which are referred to as "exceptional":

Drought monitor from May 9th, 2023.
Produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center and University of Nebraska, Lincoln

Unfortunately, the Climate Prediction Center is holding out little hope that the situation will improve in the coming weeks and months. Below is the seasonal drought outlook until the end of July. Notice that roughly the same areas are expected to remain at least in severe drought: 

 

US Seasonal Drought Outlook, valid May 1 - July 31, 2023.

Courtesy NOAA Climate Prediction Center

The CPC forecast for precipitation reinforces the notion that it's going to remain dry in the region. 

Seasonal Precipitation Outlook for the CONUS & Alaska, valid May - July, 2023.

Courtesy NOAA Climate Prediction Center

The forecasted return of El Niño has its fingerprints on this forecast. As mentioned here, ENSO's impacts are much more significant in the winter than in the summer, especially in the continental US. But, there's still something to be taken from a forecast of ENSO-positive conditions taking hold this summer. The main takeaway is the strength and position of the storm track. 

Depiction of the Pacific Jet Stream during ENSO phases.
Courtesy of NOAA National Weather Service

As you can see in the image above, El Niño conditions generally strengthen the southern branch of the jet stream and make it flatter (yellow line), with less pronounced dips and ridges. During the summer months, the jet is usually at its weakest, because jet stream winds are derived from a temperature contrast between the equator and the poles. As you might expect, this gradient gets weaker in the summer, when the sun's direct rays are in the Northern Hemisphere. But El Niño enhances the southern jet, leading to a more active storm track and more chances for precipitation. Here's the precip outlook map again so you don't have to scroll up:

This could be one of the reasons the CPC anticipates more precipitation (green blob) from the Ohio River valley to Florida. But what's behind the brown shading from Arizona to the Texas panhandle? Isn't this region also the southern US? Alas, the double-edged sword of El Niño may be to blame. At the same time El Niño strengthens the southern jet, it also makes the conditions for the southwestern monsoon less likely to develop. And since the monsoon is the #1 source for precipitation in the desert southwest, a return of El Niño likely means less rain through the first half of the summer. 

Let's add a silver lining to this outlook, shall we? For that, we need to go back to today's drought monitor. Did you notice that nearly the entire state of California is excluded from the drought? 

It's one heck of a difference from where we were at the end of 2022:  

Drought monitor from December 27th, 2022.
Produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center and University of Nebraska, Lincoln

The incredible influx of moisture from multiple atmospheric river events at the beginning of the year caused catastrophic flooding, but the good news is that all the rain and snow essentially ended the drought. And with El Niño conditions expected to return, it's likely that the spigot will stay pointed toward the notoriously drought-stricken state again this winter.